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International Military Review – Syria, Feb. 23, 2016
Putin announces Syrian ceasefire agreement with the US
Syria Ceasefire Begins Saturday, Putin Vows to Continue to Crush ISIS
State Spox: Syria – Cessation of hostilities? 22 Feb 2016
US and Russia agree to new Syria truce from Saturday
Syria accepts US-Russia brokered ceasefire deal
US, Russia define list of non-terrorist groups in Syria
UN chief welcomes Syria truce agreement
Foreign Policy Diary – Syria Ceasefire. Strategic Implications
Syria’s president Assad sets date for parliamentary elections
‘US must join Russia to destroy Daesh’
Only thing we expect from our US ally is to support Turkey with no ‘ifs or buts’ – Turkish PM
A “Nervous” NATO Fears Turkey, Russia May Soon Go To War
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-22/nervous-nato-fears-turkey-russia-may-soon-go-war
If you want our take – and let’s face it, you must because that’s why you’re here – we wouldn’t put too much faith in today’s announced Syrian “ceasefire” agreement.
Although the deal calls for the cessation of hostilities as of Saturday at midnight, you shouldn’t expect the Russians and the Iranians to halt their advance on Aleppo and likewise, you shouldn’t expect Turkey to stop shelling the Azaz corridor in a largely transparent effort to keep the supply lines to the rebels open.
The stakes are simply too high now. As we’ve explained exhaustively, the fall of Aleppo to Hezbollah and the Russians would for all intents and purposes be the end of the rebellion. Assad would once again control the bulk of the country’s urban backbone in the west and that would mean his rule would be effectively restored.
Additionally, don’t expect Hezbollah to simply pack up and head back to Lebanon once the rebels are defeated. Iran will most likely keep Hassan Nasrallah’s army in place to provide security as well as members of the various Shiite militias the Quds called over from Iraq. Similarly, the Russians won’t be going anywhere either. Vladimir Putin now has an air base and a naval base in Syria and The Kremlin will want to protect those installations vociferously during what is likely to be a turbulent couple of years following the demise of the rebel cause.
Turkey and Saudi Arabia know all of this and they’re fuming mad. The last thing Saudi Arabia wants is for Tehran to preserve the Shiite crescent and the supply line to Lebanon and Turkey is now in a bitter feud with the Russians following Erdogan’s ill-fated move to down an Su-24 near the border on November 24.
Both Riyadh and Ankara have indicated that they would participate in ground operations in Syria and most recently, the Turks have been busy shelling the Syrian Kurds to keep what’s left of the supply lines to the rebels open and prevent the Russian-backed YPG from consolidating territorial gains and uniting a Kurdish proto-state on Turkey’s border.
All of the above has NATO rattled, but the thing that worries the alliance the most is the possibility that Turkey will end up in an armed, direct confrontation with Russia. Were Russia to attack Turkey, NATO would be obligated to defend Ankara but that defense would mean going to war with Moscow and, most likely, with Iran.
………….as Erdogan advisor Seref Malkoc made clear over the weekend, Ankara is getting fed up with the “cold shoulder” and if there’s anything the Turks aren’t scared to do, it’s act unilaterally.
While NATO might indeed scold Ankara and seek to stay out of an open conflict in the initial stages, it’s unlikely that the alliance would stand idly by should Russia and Turkey actually go to war.
As a reminder, Turkey has already gotten two strikes. Erodgan downed a Russian drone and then shot down a Russian warplane. Turkey is now shelling areas where Russian and Iranian forces are very likely to be operating, if not now, then within a couple of weeks.
We can promise you that when it comes to shooting at Russian assets, be they planes, drones, or soldiers, Turkey will not get a strike three.
Critics: Ankara driving itself further into corner
Turkey: 14 PKK militants killed in army offensive
Aleppo residents react to ceasefire announcement
Tiger Forces launch counter-offensive against ISIS in southeast Aleppo
Jabhat al-Nusra: Syrian terror group could be more dangerous than ISIS
Militants shell the villages of Fuah and Kefraya in Idlib
Iraqi Special Forces Golden Division enter Husaybah and find ISIS documents
Iraqi army liberates parts of Fallujah in Anbar
Daesh-led violence destroys 85% of Ramadi
Syria: Gov’t Forces in Tough Battle with Militants to Reopen Hama-Aleppo Supply Route
URGENT: Kurdish Fighters Marching on Militant Centers in Syria’s Aleppo
URGENT: Syrian Army Wins 3 Strategic Regions in Aleppo Province
Kurdish Forces Seize Large Amount of Turkish-Made Arms, Ammunition in Al-Shadadi
Syria: Gov’t Forces Launch Fresh Operations to Reopen Key Supply Route to Aleppo
Syria: Kurdish Fighters Push Militants Back from Positions in Aleppo City
SDF Repels ISIL’s Heavy Attack near Tishreen Dam in Aleppo
Syria: Gov’t Forces Preparing to Launch Imminent Operation at Lattakia-Idlib Border