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The Horserace – September 28, 2016
National Polls
LA Times – Trump +4.1
People’s Pundit Daily – Trump +2.4
UPI/Cvoter – Tie
Hillary UP 1 Point
Reuters/Ipsos – Hillary +6 (2-way), Hillary +4 (4-way)
Hillary UP 6 Points
Google Consumer Surveys – Trump +2
Trump UP 3 Points
Morning Consult – Hillary +4 (2-way), Hillary +3 (4-way)
Hillary UP 2 and 4 Points
State Polls
Michigan – FOX 2 – Hillary +5 (4-way)
Washington – Emerson – Hillary +6 (4-way)
Nebraska – Emerson – Trump +27
Commentary
1.) The LA Times poll is weighted using a weekly average. It tends to lag about a week behind other polls. Over the next few days, we should see the reaction to Charlotte. A week from now, we will start to see the reaction to the first debate.
2.) Hillary won the first debate. That is pretty clear now.
3.) The impact of the first debate is inconclusive. Gravis and PPD have polls which show Hillary won the debate, but Undecideds broke toward Trump. There are other polls which suggest Undecideds broke toward Hillary. Anyway, we expected the polls to get bouncy, and whatever effect this is having now will fade.
4.) The Reuters and Morning Consult polls suggest Hillary is getting a bounce. The PPD, UPI and Google Consumer Surveys polls suggest she isn’t.
5.) Finally, take a look inside that Michigan poll. Hillary is +5 in Michigan AFTER the debate. In the poll, Michigan likely voters said she won the debate 2-to-1. It had zero impact. Trump actually gained 1 point over the last poll.
Source: http://www.occidentaldissent.com/2016/09/28/the-horserace-september-28-2016/
