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Guesses about the Future of Greece and Europe
From
WSJ blog – As the prospect of Greece leaving the euro becomes more real by the day, economists are trying to figure out what would happen next to the economy and to the markets.
Guesses about the Future of Greece and Europe
JP MORGAN: There’s now a 50% chance of Greece leaving, up from 20% before the country’s politicians failed to produce a coalition government. It says a Greek exit would depress the country’s gross domestic product by five to 10 percentage points more than if it were to stay in. “That would put the peak-to-trough decline in Greek GDP at 25-30%, broadly matching the U.S. experience in the early 1930s.” In turn, that would take away around two percentage points of growth from the region.
CITIGROUP: “There are many scenarios for a Greek exit; almost all of them are likely to be euro negative for an extended period,” says the bank that coined the now-ubiquitous term “Grexit”.
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