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Met Office forecasting skill on show.
Figure 1
Sea level along the English Channel has already risen by about 12cm in the last 100 years. With the warming we are already committed to over the next few decades, a further 11-16cm of sea level rise is likely by 2030. This equates to 23-27cm (9-10½ inches) of total sea level
rise since 1900.(c)Crown Copyright 2014, Met Office, NERC
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/n/i/Recent_Storms_Briefing_Final_07023.pdf
See figure 1. Note units, 11-16cm is 110 to 160 mm.
Figure 2
The International Hydrographic Organization defines the limits of the English Channel as follows:[3]
On the West. A line joining Isle Vierge (48°38’23?N 4°34’13?W) to Lands End (50°04′N 5°43′W).
On the East. The Southwestern limit of the North Sea.
Areas of falling land and rising sea levels:
Somerset, Cornwall and Devon
Dorset, Hampshire and Sussex
Kent and Essex
No excuse there of rising land.
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Brest is almost abreast the English Channel but this a very long record, if unlikely to be correct. So what is that rough eyeball, 200 millimetre since 1900, 20 centimetres? Is ballpark “This equates to 23-27cm (9-10½ inches) of total sea level rise since 1900.”
Newlyn data? I usually avoid annual.
There is a circa 20 year wave but no sign of more than a linear or very long term curve which did not show. Fast movement shows signs of impossible periodicy, such as much too close to 3 and 6 years which if combined seem to fingerprint a linearity problem somewhere or Nyquist at work. I don’t think this substantially affects the outcome.
Posted by Tim
Source: http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/02/10/met-office-forecasting-skill-on-show/
