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China GDP growth about 7.5% this year and slowing to 6% range the next few years
Nomura Securities raised its GDP target to 7.5% from 7.4%. It’s not a major jump, but it is a move in the right direction. China investors have been waiting for any sign of momentum since 2012.
“We do not believe a recovery is sustainable in the medium term and continue to expect growth to slow to 6.8% in 2015,” wrote Zhiwei Zhang, Nomura’s senior economist in Hong Kong. Zhang cited inflation going up to 3.2% next year, limiting the scope of any future policy easing.
Meanwhile, the current property sector slowdown is structural due to over investment, said Zhang. The property market is the top risk, but a correction has started and this will likely be exacerbated in 2015 as the over-supply problem in second and third tier cities may worsen.
Below is my new long term prediction for China's economy. It is a slightly less than what I thought 6 months ago and mainly I changed the projection on the currency exchange. I think China will only slowly increase the strength of its currency.
Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth USD/CNY
2011 47.2 9.2 6.3
2012 53 8.0 6.2
2013 59 7.6 6.05
2014 66 7.5 6.1
2015 72 6.8 5.8
2016 79 6.5 5.6
2017 87 6.5 5.4
2018 95 6 5.3
2019 105 6 5.2
2020 113 6 5.0
2021 123 5 4.9
2022 133 5 4.8
2023 142 5 4.7
2024 154 5 4.6
2025 167 5 4.5
2026 180 5 4.4
2027 195 5 4.3
2028 210 5 4.2
2029 230 5 4.1
2030 255 5 4.0
Source: http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/06/china-gdp-growth-about-75-this-year-and.html
