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Photos And Video Of Apophis Flyby, The Doomsday Asteroid Bigger Than Expected
Catalogued as asteroid (99942) Apophis (previously 2004 MN4), it is often nicknamed ‘the doomsday asteroid’ in popular media, after initial observations made after its discovery in 2004 gave it a 2.7% chance of striking Earth in April 2029.
Scientists using the Herschel Space Observatory made new observations of asteroid Apophis as it approached Earth this past weekend. The data show the asteroid to be bigger than first estimated, and less reflective.
Asteroid Apophis – named after the Egyptian demonic serpent-spirit of destruction – will fly by Earth on 1/9. In 2029, Apophis will fly by at only 30,000km and in 2036 there is a 1 in 250,000 chance it could hit Earth.
Discovered in 2004, Apophis was initially thought to have a 2.7 percent chance of impacting Earth in 2029. Additional observations of the asteroid ruled out any possibility of an impact in 2029. However, Apophis is expected to make a record-setting — but harmless — close approach to Earth on April 13, 2029, when it comes no closer than 18,300 miles (29,450 kilometers) above Earth’s surface. The asteroid will make another approach to Earth in 2036. Data collected by telescopes during today’s close approach are expected to refine the asteroid’s orbit to the point where an impact in 2036 can be ruled out.
The Herschel Observatory is a European Space Agency mission in which NASA plays an important role.
Over the weekend, Herschel gathered data while observing Apophis for about two hours on its approach to Earth, ahead of today’s closest encounter at a little less than one-tenth of the distance from Earth to the sun: about 9 million miles (14.5 million kilometers).
The space observatory provided the first thermal infrared observations of Apophis at different wavelengths, which together with optical measurements helped refine estimates of the asteroid’s properties. Previous estimates bracketed the asteroid’s average diameter at about 885 feet (270 meters). Herschel’s observations indicate the space rock is about 10,060 feet (325 meters) across.
By analyzing the heat emitted by Apophis, Herschel also provided a new estimate of the asteroid’s albedo — a measure of its reflectivity– of 0.23. This value means that 23 percent of the sunlight falling onto the asteroid is reflected; the rest is absorbed and heats up the asteroid. The previous albedo estimate for Apophis was 0.33.
Apophis temperature model
“The 20% increase in diameter, from 270 to 325 m, translates into a 75% increase in our estimates of the asteroid’s volume or mass,” says Thomas Müller of the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics in Garching, Germany, who is leading the analysis of the new data.
By analysing the heat emitted by Apophis, Herschel also provided a new estimate of the asteroid’s albedo – a measure of its reflectivity – of 0.23. This value means that 23% of the sunlight falling onto the asteroid is reflected; the rest is absorbed and heats up the asteroid. The previous albedo estimate for Apophis was 0.33.
Knowing the thermal properties of an asteroid indicates how its orbit might be altered due to subtle heating by the Sun. Known as the Yarkovsky effect, the heating and cooling cycle of a small body as it rotates and as its distance from the Sun changes can instigate long-term changes to the asteroid’s orbit.
“These numbers are first estimates based on the Herschel measurements alone, and other ongoing ground-based campaigns might produce additional pieces of information which will allow us to improve our results,” adds Müller.
“Although Apophis initially caught public interest as a possible Earth impactor, which is now considered highly improbable for the foreseeable future, it is of considerable interest in its own right, and as an example of the class of Near Earth Objects,” says Göran Pilbratt, ESA’s Herschel Project Scientist.
“Our unique Herschel measurements play a key role for the physical characterisation of Apophis, and will improve the long-term prediction of its orbit.”Herschel is a European Space Agency cornerstone mission, with science instruments provided by consortia of European institutes and with important participation by NASA. NASA’s Herschel Project Office is based at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., which contributed mission-enabling technology for two of Herschel’s three science instruments. The NASA Herschel Science Center, part of the Infrared Processing and Analysis Center at Caltech, supports the United States astronomical community. More information is online at: http://www.herschel.caltech.edu,http://www.nasa.gov/herschel , and http://www.esa.int/SPECIALS/Herschel/index.html .
Contacts and sources:
Whitney Clavin
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
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I thought Apophis died at Stargate Command about 10 years ago.
I thought Apophis died at Stargate Command about 10 years ago?