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by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)
The Yankees Greg Bird has been one of the biggest stories this spring. After missing all of 2016 due to injury expectations were that he’d enter 2017 as part of a first base by committee, potentially platooning with Tyler Austin and ceding AB to veterans like Chris Carter and Matt Holliday. With Spring Training wrapping up that is no longer the case, as Bird has staked his claim on the starting job and the third spot in the batting order thanks to a monster spring (stats are through Tuesday):
.429 (21-49), 7 HR, 13 RBI, 10 R, 0 SB
He hasn’t just been hitting home runs, showing that there’s plenty of power by piling up the extra base hits (7 doubles and 1 triple) and showing a strong command of the strike zone (10 K vs. 9 BB). It’s Spring Training and we don’t want to draw definitive conclusions, so let’s take a look and see if he can maintain this when the lights turn on:
Power
In 2015 he showed ample power, both in the Majors and minors:
Obviously the 20.4% HR/FB in the Majors seems extreme, though keep in mind that he added 23 doubles and 1 triples in the minor leagues (leading to a .469 SLG). Playing half his games in Yankee Stadium is going to help keep his numbers elevated, and he should be a lock to contribute 20+ HR and 70+ RBI (assuming he gets enough AB).
Average
Interestingly, one of the “knocks” prior to his breakout performance in 2015 was that he was too passive at the plate. Rich Wilson of Prospect 361 said at the time:
“I’ve seen several at-bats with Bird and I worry that his approach is becoming more passive than just a great understanding of the strike zone. A passive approach will be exposed as you move through the development process as more advanced pitchers will be able to throw strike-1, strike-2 and then the batter is on his heels. Therefore, I would like to see Bird become more aggressive and would even welcome a walk rate below 10% if it meant unlocking his power potential.”
We saw a bit of a transformation in ’15, though it included a massive strikeout rate in the majors (Walk Rate // Strikeout Rate):
He did show a good command of the strike zone, with a 26.5% O-Swing%, and we’d expect his 11.1% SwStr% to improve. He will likely strike out (though who doesn’t in this era), but it’s not a concern and it isn’t going to sink his average.
2017 Projection
.264 (112-425), 22 HR, 75 RBI, 65 R, 0 SB, .321 BABIP, .340 OBP, .480 SLG
Final Thoughts
Obviously this projection still factors in the potential loss of AB to various sources. There’s a chance that he ultimately sits against left-handed pitchers, and if the Yankees want to keep Gary Sanchez’ bat in the lineup there’s a real chance that he DH’s with Matt Holiday manning first base. It’s something to keep in mind, but it’s obvious that the potential of Bird is high. If he gets 500+ AB a 25 HR/90 RBI season could be in the cards. That would put him in the running for a Top 15 option, making him well worth owning in all formats (assuming you don’t have to overpay).
Sources – MLB.com, MILB.com, Fangraphs, Prospect 361
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Make sure to check out our 2017 Rankings:
Position
|
Standard League
|
OBP League
|
---|---|---|
Catcher | 03/20/17 | 02/28/17 |
First Base | 01/16/17 | 03/07/17 |
Second Base | 03/22/17 | 03/09/17 |
Third Base | 02/06/17 | 03/12/17 |
Shortstop | 02/13/17 | 03/15/17 |
Outfield | #1-20 |03/16/17
#21-40 |03/16/17 |
03/19/17 |
Starting Pitcher | #1-20 |02/27/17
#21-40 |03/02/17 |
– |
Relief Pitcher | 01/02/17 | – |