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2017 Projection: Is Marcus Stroman’s Breakout Imminent After His WBC Dominance?
by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)
Coming off a dominant performance in last night’s World Baseball Classic finals, throwing 6.0 no-hit innings against a Puerto Rico lineup that featured Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor and others (Angel Pagan broke up the no-hit bid in the seventh), the hype machine is going to move into hyper drive. Marcus Stroman has always carried a lot of intrigue and perceived upside, so could this performance be a sign that his breakout campaign is upon us?
2016 Statistics
204.0 IP
9 Wins
4.37 ERA
1.29 WHIP
166 Strikeouts (7.32 K/9)
54 Walks (2.38 BB/9)
60.1% Groundball Rate
.308 BABIP
Groundballs
Clearly Stroman has proven capable of being one of the elite groundball pitchers in the league. He features a sinker, which he threw 48.94% of the time in ’16, and helps him cause opponents to consistently drive the ball into the ground. It’s a skill he’s developed (1.36 GO/AO in his minor league career, 2.40 in ’16), but one that is very much for real. In his dominant WBC performance Stroman induced 11 groundball outs, compared to just 1 fly out.
Control
Stroman has always had strong control, with a 2.6 BB/9 over his minor league career. Maybe he regresses a little bit from his ’16 mark (2.56 BB/9 in the first half), but it should be a strong number that allows him to post a solid WHIP (a lot of his problems last season were luck based, given the BABIP and 68.6% strand rate).
Strikeouts
This is where the question lies, though even without growth his value should be high considering his groundball rate and control. However he showed an improved mark in the second half of ’16:
- First Half – 6.44 K/9
- Second Half – 8.49 K/9
His SwStr% went from 8.8% to 9.9% and he also showed an ability to generate swings and misses with his slider (17.59% Whiff%), curveball (16.72%) and change-up (14.11%). He doesn’t throw his changeup much, and it’s something that we’d like to see him develop (.327 BAA in ’16), though he also doesn’t necessarily need it to excel. There’s reason to believe that an 8.0 K/9 is possible for the entire season.
2017 Projection
200.0 IP, 13 W, 3.42 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 180 K (8.10 K/9), 50 BB (2.25 BB/9)
Conclusion
There was already well deserved hype and optimism, and we have him ranked #25 among starting pitchers entering the season. The pitch that he needs to see better results with is his sinker (.306 BAA), and that is indicative of his luck more than anything (and maybe a bit about the defense, considering his groundball rate). That’s not a knock against him, and there is the potential to carry the three skills we look for from a pitcher. Hopefully this latest performance doesn’t drive his price tag up too much, because the upside is there and it’s possible he emerges as a Top 20 option by year’s end.
Sources – MLB.com, MILB.com, Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Reference
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Make sure to check out our 2017 Rankings:
|
Position
|
Standard League
|
OBP League
|
|---|---|---|
| Catcher | 01/09/17 | 02/28/17 |
| First Base | 01/16/17 | 03/07/17 |
| Second Base | 01/23/17 | 03/09/17 |
| Third Base | 02/06/17 | 03/12/17 |
| Shortstop | 02/13/17 | 03/15/17 |
| Outfield | #1-20 |03/16/17
#21-40 |03/16/17 |
03/19/17 |
| Starting Pitcher | #1-20 |02/27/17
#21-40 |03/02/17 |
– |
| Relief Pitcher | 01/02/17 | – |
Source: http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=32371
