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Quick Hit: Could Alex Wood Return To Fantasy Relevance In 2017?
by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)
With Julio Urias not expected to be ready to open the season in the Dodgers’ rotation, Hyun-Jim Ryu being brought along slowly and Scott Kazmir battling decreased velocity, MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick (click here for the article) expects Alex Wood to open with the fifth starters job. It’s an interesting development for the once promising starter, who was moved to the bullpen late in ’16 after missing much of the season.
While Wood may not be long for the rotation, there are significant questions and it’s easy to envision him taking the ball every five days if he is getting the job done. Can he be the potential stud he flashed in ’14 (2.78 ERA, 8.91 K/9, 2.36 BB/9)?
Even as he struggled, control was never a question (career 2.72 BB/9). He’s also seen his groundball rate rise over the years, though even the ’14 mark is enough to excel in Los Angeles:
- 2014 – 45.9%
- 2015 – 49.5%
- 2016 – 53.5%
Part of his issue has been luck based (BABIP of .313 and .317 the past two seasons), but more important has been the sudden decline in strikeouts. While he rebounded last season (9.85 K/9) it was a small sample size so it’s hard to draw the conclusion that he’s “back”. He posted a 6.60 K/9 in ’15, splitting time between Atlanta and Los Angeles.
His SwStr% dropped, going from 9.7% to 8.2%. The difference was a drop in the Whiff % on his changeup, which went from 16.56% in ’14 to 11.88% in ’15. He had lost nearly a mph on his sinker (90.74 to 89.82), though that was back up to 91.28 mph last season . He has 11 K over 11.1 IP this spring (through Monday) and if he can maintain that velocity there’s every reason to believe that he can maintain an elevated strikeout rate (7.75-8.25 K/9 range).
Strikeouts + Control + Groudballs? That’s the exact formula we look for.
While he’s hardly a lock to stick in the rotation for the long-term, he has the potential to force the team’s hand. Keep a close eye on him and if you are in a deeper format and need a lottery ticket, why not? He’s proven capable in the past and has earned an opportunity once again.
Sources – MLB.com, Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball
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Make sure to check out our 2017 Rankings:
|
Position
|
Standard League
|
OBP League
|
|---|---|---|
| Catcher | 01/09/17 | 02/28/17 |
| First Base | 01/16/17 | 03/07/17 |
| Second Base | 01/23/17 | 03/09/17 |
| Third Base | 02/06/17 | 03/12/17 |
| Shortstop | 02/13/17 | 03/15/17 |
| Outfield | #1-20 |03/16/17
#21-40 |03/16/17 |
03/19/17 |
| Starting Pitcher | #1-20 |02/27/17
#21-40 |03/02/17 |
– |
| Relief Pitcher | 01/02/17 | – |
Source: http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=32353
