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April 17, 2015: Wisconsin Senate
More excellent poll results for the blue team. Former Senator Russ Feingold, who was upset by Republican Sen. Ron Johnson in 2010, leads Johnson by an amazing 54%-38% margin in a Marquette poll. Feingold has yet to declare his candidacy, but is reportedly preparing for a run.
April 13, 2015: Florida Senate
A second Senate Republican seat has opened up now that Senator Marco Rubio (R) has declared for President. The Cook Political Report instantly moved the race to toss-up. U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) has already declared and has gotten a fundraising and organization advantage. But other Democrats are expected to challenge him. The battle for the Republican nomination is less clear: one GOP candidate who might have been a front-runner, state chief financial officer Jeff Atwater, has said he will not run.
April 9, 2015: Nevada Senate
Former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto has launched a campaign for Sen. Harry Reid’s (D) seat in 2016. Reid, who recently announced his retirement rather than run for a sixth term, had made it clear that Masto was his choice as his successor and the Democratic Party hierarchy in Nevada has immediately rallied around her. This is likely to be a toss-up race.
April 8, 2015: California 24th District
Santa Barbara Democratic Representative Lois Capps announced her retirement after the end of this term. She first won this seat in a 1998 special election following the death of her husband. Her daughter, Democratic communications strategist Laura Capps, recently moved back to Santa Barbara and is expected to seek her mother’s seat, but there could be competition for the Democratic nomination.
April 7, 2015: Arizona Senate
There had been some doubt that 78-year old Senator John McCain (R) would run for re-election, but he accounted that he will seek a sixth term. He could face major primary opposition, although his $3.5 million cash-on-hand as of March 31 gives him a major advantage. No well-known Democrat is expected to run.
April 6, 2015: Ohio Senate
In something of a surprise, former Gov. Ted Strickland (D-Ohio) leads Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) by nine points, 48%-39% in a Quinnipiac University poll. Portman has a huge amount of money in the bank (about $8 million) and Strickland faces a primary from Cincinnati City Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld. Still, it means that Ohio is likely to be one of the major battlegrounds in 2016. Portman has low name recognition for an incumbent.
April 3, 2015: Texas 23rd 18th District & Illinois 10th
Former Democratic Rep. Pete Gallego is seeking a rematch with freshman Republican Will Hurd. Two years ago, Hurt defeated Gallego by only 50%-48%. The district stretches from the El Paso area to San Antonio. In another rematch, former Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider is running for a third time against Rep. Bob Dold (R) in Illinois’ 10th district, mostly comprised of the northern suburbs of Chicago. Obama carried the district 58%-41%.
March 30, 2015: Illinois Senate
Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) declared for the Senate seat now held by Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.). Duckworth is a wounded Iraq War veteran whose Blackhawk helicopter was shot down near Baghdad, taking her legs and damaging an arm. She was elected to a second House term in 2014. Kirk is considered one of the most vulnerable Senators up for election. He suffered a major stroke in 2012 and returned to the Senate floor in 2013. There may be other candidates, including a primary opponent for Kirk and other Democratic candidates.
March 30, 2015: Pennsylvania Senate
Senate candidate Joe Sestak (D), endorsed by Council for a Livable World, completed his 422-mile trek across Pennsylvania in Beaver County. He has been walking since he formally announced for Senate on March 4.
March 27, 2015: Nevada Senate
In something of a surprise, Democratic leader Senator Harry Reid announced he will not run for re-election. The contest becomes a toss-up in what is a purple state. Reid endorsed former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto to replace him, but it is not clear which candidates in either party will enter the ring.
March 24, 2015: Indiana Senate
Republican Senator Dan Coats announced today that he will not run for re-election. While Indiana is a Republican-leaning state, Democrats will have a shot at picking up the seat. There are rumors that former Democratic Senator and Governor Evan Bayh is considering running.
March 23, 2015: Florida 18th District
Rep. Patrick Murphy (FL-18) decision to run for the Rubio Senate seat has opened up his House seat to a real competition.According to the Cook Political Report, Murphy is one of just five remaining House Democrats in a district won by Mitt Romney in 2012, who won 52%. Murphy won re-election in 2014 with 60%, but the Cook report now labels this seat a toss up.
March 18, 2015: Florida Senate
Now that Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) and former Governor Charlie Crist (D) have said they will not run for the Rubio (R) seat, Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) is the front runner for the Democratic nomination. He has raised a lot of money and is expected to declare for the Senate in weeks.
March 13, 2015: Maryland Senate
The competition for the soon-to-be-open seat of Senator Barbara Mikulski (D) is getting hot and heavy. Already, two major Democratic candidates have entered the contest, Rep. Chris Van Hollen and Rep. Donna Edwards. Other House members, the Mayor of Baltimore and others are still considering their options. It will be a donnybrook, with Democrats favored to win the seat no matter who wins the primary.
March 4, 2015: Pennsylvania Senate
To no one’s surprise, former Representative and former Senate candidate Joe Sestak (D-Penn.) formally declared for Senate. In fact, he has been campaigning almost since he lost a close contest in 2010 to now Senator Pat Toomey (R). Sestak then proceeded on a 422-mile walking tour across the state. It is not clear if there will be a primary. Sestak is the first candidate for 2016 endorsed by Council for a Livable World.
March 2, 2015: Maryland Senate
Senator Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.) announces her retirement at the end of this term. As Maryland tends to vote Democratic, her successor is likely to be of the same party. Many prospective candidates are likely to surface in coming days.
February 26, 2015: Return of defeated Senators
One or more defeated Senators may try to return to the upper body in 2016, including former Senators Russ Feingold (D-Wis) and Kay Hagan (D-N.C.). There are few precedents. Slade Gorton (R-Wash.) lost to Brock Adams (D-Wash.) in 1986 and then won an open seat in 1988. Howard Metzenbaum (D-Ohio) lost the 1974 Democratic primary to John Glenn after being appointed to fill a vacancy earlier that year and then turned around and defeated Sen. Robert Taft, Jr.(R-Ohio in 1976. (Source: Daily Kos)
February 25, 2015: New Hampshire Senate
National Republicans, in an attempt to dissuade or damage Governor Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), have launched a $230,000 radio ad campaign attacking her economic record. Crossroads GPS, a super PAC founded by Karl Rove, is hoping to soften Hassan up before her potential run against incumbent Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.),
February 25, 2015: Ohio Senate
Democrats have landed another big fish: former Governor Ted Strickland (D) officially launched his Senate campaign against Senator Rob Portman (R). It is not clear if Strickland will clear the field: Cincinnati City Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld (D) previously declared for the seat. Portman had $5.8 million in his campaign treasury at the end of 2014.
February 24, 2015: California Senate
In something of a surprise, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D) announced he will not run for Senator Barbara Boxer’s (D) seat, State Attorney General Kamala Harris (D) is the major candidate thus far, but others are expected to enter the contest.
February 24, 2015: An Early Look at Competitive House Races
In the last few weeks the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee released their lists of the priority races they will focus on in the 2016 elections. These lists provide an early glimpse of where the closest and most contentious races are likely to be in this election. The groups responsible for leading the effort to win or retain control of Congress for their respective party each released two lists – one of their most endangered incumbents and one of their top targets across the aisle.
Click this link to see lists of the most endangered incumbents in each party and an indication of which party thinks they are in danger. The two parties are largely in agreement about where the upcoming battles lie, although there are some interesting discrepancies between their respective analyses. We’ll dig deeper into the dynamics of the specific races in future posts.
February 21, 2015: Wisconsin Senate
Former three-term Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold is leaving his position as a special envoy the great lakes region of Africa and the Congo. In this job, he had to avoid open politicking. There is widespread speculation that Feingold will try to regain the seat he lost in a major upset in 2012 to Republican Sen. Ron Johnson. Johnson is considered one of the most vulnerable Senators up for election in 2016. In Wisconsin, voters have not backed a Republican for president since Ronald Reagan won the state in 1984.
February 19, 2015: Missouri Senate
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has been looking to expand the number of Republican seats it will seriously contest in 2016. It scored a recruiting victory when Jason Kander, the Missouri Secretary of State, announced that he will run against incumbent Senator Roy Blunt. Kander is only 33, has been elected statewide and is an Army veteran who served in Afghanistan. Blunt will be favored in the contest, but judging by the e-mails sent by several incumbent Democratic Senators in support of Kander, the DSCC has found a candidate to unite around.
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Council for a Livable World is a Washington, D.C.-based non-profit,
non-partisan advocacy organization dedicated to reducing the danger of
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