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Novorussia/Ukraine update 9\4\2015.. What if there won’t be any war

Friday, September 4, 2015 10:11
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(Before It's News)

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OSCE Deputy Chief Monitor Says 11 Hot Spots Still Exist in Eastern Ukraine

An immediate and comprehensive ceasefire between Kiev forces and local militia in eastern Ukraine was one of the key provisions of the Minsk peace agreements, reached in February in a bid to put an end to the conflict in the region.

“Our daily reports catalogue ceasefire violations by both sides along the contact line [in Donbas]. The reports also highlight that there are a number of ‘hot spots’ where such violations are more frequent. These include the general areas of StanytsaLuhanska; Schastia; Trokhizbenka, Slavianoserbsk; Sokilniky, Krimske; Pervmaisk, Popasna; Donetski, CP 29 and along the Bachmuhta highway,” Alexander Hug said in an interview with RIA Novosti.

Hug added that the information about ceasefire violations is often “contradictory and inconsistent” and that the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) in Ukraine is sometimes prevented from visiting the sites of reported violations by “commanders who do not want us to see their positions and heavy weapons that should not be there.”

The pullback of heavy weaponry from the line of contact in Donbas was another provision of the Minsk accord, as well as increased autonomy for the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. However, both sides have repeatedly accused each other of violating the agreements.

According to UN data, over 6,800 people have been killed in eastern Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict in April 2014.

Joint US-Ukrainian navy drills in the Black Sea send a wrong signal, Russian Foreign Ministry’s official spokesperson Maria Zakharova said on Thursday.

“We have to draw attention to the fact that, against a backdrop of more active and constructive discussion about the situation in Ukraine on international platforms, Kiev again starts making bellicose statements, takes decisions aimed at escalating the intra-Ukrainian conflict, tries to shift responsibility for starting a civil was in the country’s south-east on others and complicates Russian-Ukrainian relations even further,” Zakharova noted.

She reminded that Ukraine’s new military doctrine approved recently by the country’s National Security and Defense Council “declares that Russia is the main threat.” “Then, they plan to redeploy Ukrainian Armed Forces to the south and south-east of the country. Such irresponsible policy will hardly contribute to consolidation of the Ukrainian society,” she added.

“Joint US-Ukrainian navy drills in the Black Sea do not facilitate the peaceful settlement in the region as well. This sends a wrong signal,” the diplomat stressed.

NATO drills off Ukraine’s Black Sea coast

The multinational naval drills Sea Breeze 2015 began on Monday in the Odessa and Nikolayev regions of Ukraine and in the north-western part of the Black Sea.

The current Sea Breeze 2015 exercise will be the largest in its history. The drills will involve up to 2,500 military from various countries. The Ukrainian army’s participating force will comprise 1,000 troops, 9 ships, 8 planes and helicopters, up to 50 wheeled vehicles and about 10 patrol boats from the Ukrainian State Border Guard Service.

The US forces will be represented by up to 1,000 troops with weapons and military equipment, 5 warships, 2 submarines, 6 planes and helicopters and 40 wheeled vehicles.

In addition, other NATO member states and countries participants in the Partnership for Peace Program will send to the manoeuvres up to 500 troops with weapons and military equipment, 6 ships, 3 submarines, 6 planes and helicopters and 10 wheeled vehicles.

“The drills will be conducted in the Black Sea area and ranges of the Ukrainian armed forces, as well as the military airfields Shkolny (Odessa), Kulbakino (Nikolayev), Chernobayevka (Kherson), landing areas of the Tendrovskaya spit (Ochakov) and the Pervomaisky Island, Odessa international airport, Odessa commercial seaport, Yuzhny commercial seaport and the military port of Ochakov (Nikolayev region,” the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said.

The US Naval Forces Europe-Africa, US 6th Fleet Command reported that “Maritime forces from 11 maritime nations will begin the US-Ukraine co-hosted multinational maritime exercise Sea Breeze 2015 in Odessa, Ukraine, and the Black Sea, Aug. 31. Sea Breeze, now in its 14th iteration, is an annual exercise held in the Black Sea which seeks to enhance interoperability and strengthen regional security.”

According to NATO sources, participating nations include Bulgaria, Germany, Greece, Italy, Moldova, Romania, Sweden, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The at-sea phase will focus on maritime interdiction operations as a primary means to enhance maritime security.

Specific skill sets tested in the at-sea phase will include maritime interdiction operations, anti-submarine warfare, and self-defense against small boat attacks. Other warfare areas to be tested include air defense, damage control, search and rescue, and other tactical maneuvers.

What if there won’t be any war, or the second referendum in Donetsk

2931 Views September 03, 2015 45 Comments


A sensible politician always respects his opponent and assumes that if to him (sensible politician) something appears obvious, his opponent took this possibility into account, and, if that option is undesirable for him (an opponent), he is looking for (or possibly has already found) an alternative non-obvious solution. Americans have lost several geopolitical rounds to Russia for the simple reason that they believed they considered all possible options and were forcing Moscow to choose between bad and very bad, whereas Putin managed to find a third move not anticipated by Washington.

Russian leadership, appreciating that the fate of the country is at stake, tends to take into account all possible developments and act prudently, having prepared a counter-move for every move of their opponents. Moreover, Moscow plans the game further ahead, and that is why Washington often gets into time trouble and is forced to improvise blindly responding to a well-prepared strategy of their opponents.

………..However, Kiev and Washington must have anticipated this scenario. What happens if they don’t attack, but remain in their positions and keep shelling Donbass cities, as they have been doing for almost a year now?”

The alarmists consider unconvincing the argument that neither Kiev nor Washington has time and resources (especially with the coming new wave of global systemic crisis, which can eliminated old world order along with the weakened Hegemon) to prolong indefinitely the situation that does not yield a positive result. The alarmists’ viewpoint makes sense: empirically this model can be tested only as the situation develops, whereas there are no limitations to the theoretical models that can be constructed. Not to mention that history often demonstrates that the deviation of one year in timing is the usual thing (some events, like the coup in Ukraine, were supposed to happen later than they did, whereas other events were supposed to happen early, but still didn’t).

Thus, if Washington decides to procrastinate some more and revokes its marching orders to Kiev, it is necessary to have an alternative plan that would allow Russia to win the political game in the positional war.

…………..Now Washington has to choose between two evils. It can risk and, despite grumblings from its European allies, which can get out of control, initiate Kiev aggression in Donbass that would bury Minsk and deprive the EU of arguments in its dialogue with Moscow. It can also sit and wait while Moscow, using Minsk agreements as cover, unhurriedly, with visible pleasure and with whatever timing it deems convenient, digests Ukraine (starting with Donbass, but not ending there). During this time, Washington would have to pay for totally useless regime in Kiev until Moscow is ready to put an end to it.

In any case, even the info about the desire of LPR/DPR to conduct referendum about joining Russia expands the room for Russian political and diplomatic maneuvering. If the referendums were conducted, Russian positions in Ukrainian crisis would become unassailable. Collectively, the measures currently taken and planned in Donbass suggest that somewhat belatedly and with bigger losses Donbass will follow Crimea, while creating conditions for several other temporarily Ukrainian regions to follow suit. Still, as this scenario would be too good for Russia allowing it to divide and shape Ukraine any way it likes, I believe that the US will bet on war. Among other things, it would let the US take an active position and attempt to wrest the initiative from Russia’s hands. It is still not clear whether the US will start a war specifically in Donbass. Washington can choose a third option and initiate an all-out war on the territory controlled by Kiev regime.

Of course, this option would lead to the demise of junta, fragmentation of Ukraine, and rapprochement between Russia and the EU to solve a common problem of pacifying Ukrainian Nazis. It would allow Washington, though, to free up resources tied down in Ukraine and use them elsewhere, as well as be confident that the resources of Moscow and, partially, of Brussels will be tied down to pay for the reconstruction of Ukrainian economy, control of territories, and the attempts to achieve some kind of EU-Russia consensus regarding the fate of the remains of Ukraine.


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