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This is supposedly Bernie Sanders’ problem, in a nutshell:
The problem for Sanders is a demographic one. In the South, where a number of states hold primaries in February and the first half of March, Clinton still has a lock on nonwhite Democrats.
[snip]
On March 1, primary voters in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia — all states where Clinton is expected to come out ahead — will go to the polls. Voters in Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota and Sanders’ home state of Vermont will as well, and though Sanders has a chance of winning any of those states, their delegate counts pale in comparison to those in a larger state like Texas.
Now, when I say ‘supposedly’ I do not mean that I disagree with Samantha Lachmann (the author of this piece) that Hillary Clinton has an advantage over Bernie Sanders when it comes to minority Democrats. All the indications are that she does. What I am curious about is whether it’s going to be as big a deal in 2016 as it was in 2008.
Back in 2008 Nate Silver did a review of Democratic primary exit polling, looking specifically at young, black, and Hispanic voters. He determined that an average of over 52% more young voters voted in 2008 when compared to 2004; almost 8% more black voters; and just under 42% more Hispanic voters. Which is almost certainly going to be significant… but exactly how? As I see it, there are three questions that naturally arise from this data:
To sum it all up: there are two types of people forecasting the primaries right now. There are people who admit that it’s all up in the air, and there are people who lie. …It’s all up in the air. Both Clinton and Sanders are scrambling to put together effective campaign apparatuses, thanks to Barack Obama’s almost willful disinclination to let the DNC have access to the OfA toolbox. It’s going to be a few more months before we see how it’s all likely to go.
(Image via Shutterstock)
Moe Lane (crosspost)
The post Reminder: it is not established that 2016 will be like 2012, 2008, 2004, or any other year. appeared first on RedState.