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Map Shows Probability Of Contamination From Severe Nuclear Reactor Accidents Is Higher Than Expected
Catastrophic nuclear accidents such as the core meltdowns in Chernobyl and Fukushima are more likely to happen than previously assumed. Based on the operating hours of all civil nuclear reactors and the number of nuclear meltdowns that have occurred, scientists at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz have calculated that such events may occur once every 10 to 20 years (based on the current number of reactors) — some 200 times more often than estimated in the past.
The reactor accident in Fukushima has fuelled the discussion about nuclear energy and triggered Germany’s exit from their nuclear power program. It appears that the global risk of such a catastrophe is higher than previously thought, a result of a study carried out by a research team led by Jos Lelieveld, Director of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz: “After Fukushima, the prospect of such an incident occurring again came into question, and whether we can actually calculate the radioactive fallout using our atmospheric models.” According to the results of the study, a nuclear meltdown in one of the reactors in operation worldwide is likely to occur once in 10 to 20 years. Currently, there are 440 nuclear reactors in operation, and 60 more are planned.
To determine the likelihood of a nuclear meltdown, the researchers applied a simple calculation. They divided the operating hours of all civilian nuclear reactors in the world, from the commissioning of the first up to the present, by the number of reactor meltdowns that have actually occurred. The total number of operating hours is 14,500 years, the number of reactor meltdowns comes to four—one in Chernobyl and three in Fukushima. This translates into one major accident, being defined according to the International Nuclear Event Scale (INES), every 3,625 years. Even if this result is conservatively rounded to one major accident every 5,000 reactor years, the risk is 200 times higher than the estimate for catastrophic, non-contained core meltdowns made by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission in 1990. The Mainz researchers did not distinguish ages and types of reactors, or whether they are located in regions of enhanced risks, for example by earthquakes. After all, nobody had anticipated the reactor catastrophe in Japan.
25 percent of the radioactive particles are transported further than 2,000 kilometres
Subsequently, the researchers determined the geographic distribution of radioactive gases and particles around a possible accident site using a computer model that describes the Earth’s atmosphere. The model calculates meteorological conditions and flows, and also accounts for chemical reactions in the atmosphere. The model can compute the global distribution of trace gases, for example, and can also simulate the spreading of radioactive gases and particles. To approximate the radioactive contamination, the researchers calculated how the particles of radioactive caesium-137 (137Cs) disperse in the atmosphere, where they deposit on the earth’s surface and in what quantities. The 137Cs isotope is a product of the nuclear fission of uranium. It has a half-life of 30 years and was one of the key elements in the radioactive contamination following the disasters of Chernobyl and Fukushima.
The computer simulations revealed that, on average, only eight percent of the137Cs particles are expected to deposit within an area of 50 kilometres around the nuclear accident site. Around 50 percent of the particles would be deposited outside a radius of 1,000 kilometres, and around 25 percent would spread even further than 2,000 kilometres. These results underscore that reactor accidents are likely to cause radioactive contamination well beyond national borders.
The results of the dispersion calculations were combined with the likelihood of a nuclear meltdown and the actual density of reactors worldwide to calculate the current risk of radioactive contamination around the world. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), an area with more than 40 kilobecquerels of radioactivity per square meter is defined as contaminated.
The team in Mainz found that in Western Europe, where the density of reactors is particularly high, the contamination by more than 40 kilobecquerels per square meter is expected to occur once in about every 50 years. It appears that citizens in the densely populated southwestern part of Germany run the worldwide highest risk of radioactive contamination, associated with the numerous nuclear power plants situated near the borders between France, Belgium and Germany, and the dominant westerly wind direction.
If a single nuclear meltdown were to occur in Western Europe, around 28 million people on average would be affected by contamination of more than 40 kilobecquerels per square meter. This figure is even higher in southern Asia, due to the dense populations. A major nuclear accident there would affect around 34 million people, while in the eastern USA and in East Asia this would be 14 to 21 million people.
“Germany’s exit from the nuclear energy program will reduce the national risk of radioactive contamination. However, an even stronger reduction would result if Germany’s neighbours were to switch off their reactors,” says Jos Lelieveld. “Not only do we need an in-depth and public analysis of the actual risks of nuclear accidents. In light of our findings I believe an internationally coordinated phasing out of nuclear energy should also be considered”, adds the atmospheric chemist.
Contacts and sources:
Prof. Jos Lelieveld
Max-Planck-Gesellschaft
Citation: Jos Lelieveld, Daniel Kunkel and Mark G. Lawrence Global risk of radioactive fallout after nuclear reactor accidents
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 4245-4258, 2012 www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/4245/2012/ doi:10.5194/acp-12-4245-2012
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Pure bs
The USA has already spread uranium all over eastern Europe, the Middle East, basically everywhere there is a USA miliary base. If I lived anywhere near, I’d gather all their ammuntion up and return to it’s place of origin.
Finally a voice of reason.
Our leaders and sepcialists are not capable of cleaning up their messes after they have an event, which “no one could have forseen”.
Blah Blah Blah…
More plants and more drilling because there is still some life left in our oceans, still some fish and mammals being born with eyes and without tumors.
If we are so darn smart, why is our planet almost completely polluted? The air, soil, water sources, oceans, foods have all been messed with as if how they were made originally, was not a good enough moneymaker.
GMO’s, mercury in vaccines, chemtrails fill the worlds skies, “neuclear “accidents”, hormones in fish/meat/chicken/dairy products, Corexit oil dispersant remedies, just what is left that is safe and healthy for the populations of living beings?
EPA, FDA? What do you people do, day in and day out these days, other than allowing hazardous items to be bought and sold, sprayed and dumped that contribute to medical issues down the road, if not immediately?
I am encouraged that finally a voice of reason, who is respected, will take on this topic and put an end to destroying planet Earth and all of its inhabitants. It’s about time. Cheers!
Anonymous, I agree and all those messed up city folk come to live (sent from there city for being asbo or worse) in the country just don’t understand how the world works!
I mean they dump, dump, dump litter until there is animals dying and pollutants everywhere the farmers and good people who work to keep the rest of us alive are having to be pushed away from there jobs to clean-up filthyBritonn!
Anonymous said: “suicide, blasphemy, worship of antichrist (pale jew with red eyes, who moves like superman and makes fire come down from the sky), receiving mark of the beast (rfid chip-small grey world passport-electronic tattoo-666 tattoo by lasers), and going into ufo ship (aliens=ghosts=demons) lead to hell.when people stretch hands to receive small grey world passport,a green 666 tattoo will be given by lasers on forehead/wrist area.rfid chip and electronic tattoo are used to track people to laser them.”
@ Anonymous. Good thinking, Robin!
All you need to do is to convert some of the Existing Reactors (some you can’t) to use THORIUM instead of Uranium. Hell you don’t need any more Plutonium as there is more than enough for all the Nuclear Bombs to blow up our Planet.
Not only is Thorium more efficient it also allows to burn (convert) all our used up Uranium Byproducts in those Reactors.
The creation of highly radioactive byproducts is almost none and a Meltdown is very unlikely.
Now this is what I have been told by a Chemical Engineer.
For obvious reasons this Fact is not very well publicized by our Mainstream News Media. However you can Google Thorium and follow all the Links to form your own convincing Opinion.
It seems that war is just something human beings are destined to start. Look at human history.
So imagine Europe finds itself in something like WWI or WWII, even if they don’t use nuclear weapons, what happens to all the nuclear power plants?
What a potential mess.
more important things to worry about right now.