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My Comment On The Nature Article “Extreme Weather – Better Models Are Needed Before Exceptional Events Can Be Reliably Linked To Global Warming”
Pielke Sr Research Group: News and Commentary
As a comment at Nature on the Editorial on 19 September 2012
Extreme weather – Better models are needed before exceptional events can be reliably linked to global warming Nature 489,335–336(20 September 2012)doi:10.1038/489335b
I posted the following comment -
Roger Pielke Sr said:
I recommend readers read our articles
Pielke Sr., R.A., and R.L. Wilby, 2012: Regional climate downscaling ‘what’s the point?’ Eos Forum, 93, No. 5, 52-53, doi:10.1029/2012EO050008. http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/r-361.pdf
and
Pielke Sr., R.A., R. Wilby, D. Niyogi, F. Hossain, K. Dairuku, J. Adegoke, G. Kallos, T. Seastedt, and K. Suding, 2012: Dealing with complexity and extreme events using a bottom-up, resource-based vulnerability perspective. AGU Monograph on Complexity and Extreme Events in Geosciences. http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/r-365.pdf
where we overview the challenges of skillful multi-decadal regional and global climate predictions. Not only must current multi-decadal climate statistics be accurately calculated, but CHANGES in these statistics must be skillful.
As documented in these weblog posts
More CMIP5 Regional Model Shortcomings http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2012/09/11/more-cmip5-regional-model-shortcomings/
CMIP5 Climate Model Runs - A Scientifically Flawed Approach. http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2012/07/20/cmip5-climate-model-runs-a-scientifically-flawed-approach/
The Hindcast Skill Of The CMIP Ensembles For The Surface Air Temperature Trend – By Sakaguchi Et Al 2012. http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2012/09/19/the-hindcast-skill-of-the-cmip-ensembles-for-the-surface-air-temperature-trend-by-sakaguchi-et-al-2012/
the global models have not yet passed the needed tests.
“Better models are not what is needed, in my view, but a new approach to assess risk from climate and other environmental (and social) threats as we present in our second paper listed above.
Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr
2012-09-19 23:41:14
Source:
