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DUI Stats From Labor Day Weekend Tell Us Almost Nothing …

Wednesday, September 5, 2012 13:22

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(Before It's News)

After every major holiday or DUI enforcement period, DUI stats are compiled by local agencies and paraded in press releases and newspapers. If the numbers indicate an increase in arrests, the officers are doing a better job. If they indicate a decrease, the officers have done such a great job that less people are driving drunk.

Truth be told, one weekend’s stats mean almost nothing.

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That’s not meant as a criticism of law enforcement officers or agencies. It’s just that last weekend’s stats, courtesy of NBC Los Angeles, painted such a murky picture that it’s hard to draw any conclusions.

In Los Angeles County, DUI arrests were up to 259 from 227 during the same weekend last year, a rise of 14 percent! However, over the period of August 17 to 26, the numbers were down from 1,649 to 1,258. According to the South Gate Patch, LA County fatalities also dropped, from three to one, a decrease of 66 percent.

Statewide, there were 11 fatalities this year versus 10 last year during the weekend and 960 DUI arrests versus 1,008 last year.

Seeing any patterns? If so, look again. LA saw a bump over the weekend but a drop over the entire enforcement period. Statewide saw a drop in arrests and a statistically-insignificant increase in deaths.

This brings to mind an important concept in statistics that baseball fans are well-aware of: the small sample size.

We can’t draw conclusions from one weekend in one county. Even two weeks is likely too small of a time period. Attempting to draw conclusions on such a small sample size is akin to promoting a baseball rookie as the “next big thing” when they’ve had one great month of hitting. (Royals fans are well acquainted with the consequences of such statistical leaps of faith.)

What do the stats tell us? Cops are out there, patrolling for drunk drivers. Be smart. Get a designated driver.

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