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Peter Schiff: 4 Reasons Why the U.S. Economy is Already in Recession
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The following video below is from a recent visit to Fox Business this week and the first thing Peter did was talk about how good gold investments are doing.
The Best…doubled or more.”
He then launched straight into the reason why. The economy is a mess.
If this economy wasn’t a disaster, Trump wouldn’t have the support that he does. Neither would Bernie Sanders. Peter pointed to the horrible year retailers are having to boost his case, hit on the “auto bubble,” and went on to talk about what’s going to happen when the Federal Reserve is finally forced to acknowledge that we are in a recession. After the intervie with Peter, Profit Confidential doubles down and further explains, that despite Barack Obama’s fictional NONSENSE, the country is in a dire position!
HERE ARE JUST A HANDFUL OF HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE INTERVIEW:
“The gold investments are obviously doing the best…doubled or more.”
“Goldman Sachs came out today and updated Newmont Mining from a hold to a buy. Newmont has already doubled this year, and now they’re saying buy it. They’re actually not late because I think it’s going much, much higher.”
“This is just getting started. These gold stocks are just recovering ground they never should have lost.”
“I don’t know why anyone is surprised about these bad numbers coming out of Macy’s. The retailers have been reporting terrible sales all year. The consumer is broke, we are back in recession. That’s why Trump is the nominee. That’s why Bernie Sanders is beating Hillary Clinton in all these primaries, because the voters know how awful this economy is. They don’t have any money left to spend.”
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SchiffGold contineus with the highlights from the interview:
“If this economy wasn’t a disaster, Trump wouldn’t have the support that he does. Neither would Bernie Sanders. This is a phony recovery. “
“That is the next big thing – when the Fed has to capitulate and acknowledge that we’re back in recession, because that’s the last thing Janet Yellen wants to do.”
[Responding to question asking how $17 million cars sold is a phony economy] “Because it’s a bubble. You look at the terms that these cars are being sold on. And of course, a lot of young people are buying cars because they still live with their parents. That’s the only thing they can afford. You know, a lot of people are living out of their cars.”
“[The next big danger to the economy] is going to be the revelation that the recovery is over and we’re back in recession. And instead of rate hikes, the Fed is going to cut. The Fed is going to do QE4. And they may even go negative. You’ve got your gold dress on for a reason.”
THANK THE JACKASS WHO NEVER LEARNED THAT SOCIALISM DOES NOT WORK…
[THE SAME JACKASS WHOSE OWN PERSONAL NET WORTH HAS GONE UP OVER 800% AS PRESIDENT I MIGHT ADD]
Yesterday, we learned the U.S. economy grew at only half a percent in the first quarter of this year—its worst performance in two years. Truth be told, dear reader, the U.S. economy is already in a recession with many economic indicators confirming this.
Let’s start with a chart of the inventories-to-sales ratio. The ratio measures the buildup of inventories at businesses in the U.S. compared to sales. In times of recession, this ratio spikes higher, as business inventories build and sales plunge. As it stands, the inventories-to-sales ratio is pretty much saying we are in a recession.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, last accessed April 27, 2016.
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Another indicator suggesting the U.S. economy is in a recession is the value of new orders at consumer goods manufacturers. Look at the following chart and let me explain why it’s important.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, last accessed April 27, 2016.
The amount of new orders for durable goods received by manufacturers in the U.S. has been seeing month-over-month declines since February of 2015—that’s 13 months in a row.
Why does this matter? The U.S. economy is a consumer-based economy. If consumers spend more, the economy improves. Now, if manufacturers are getting fewer orders, it pretty much says consumer spending is weak.
Lastly, look at consumer sentiment. In the simplest terms, if consumers are pessimistic, they spend less.
Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
As you can see from the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index above, consumer sentiment has been in a decline since the beginning of 2015. Historically, whenever consumer sentiment has plunged, a recession usually follows.
U.S. Economic Outlook for 2016 and Beyond
Dear reader, I don’t want to be the bearer of bad news, but the data just doesn’t look good. What I have mentioned above is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg. A lot of other indicators say the same.
For example, for the first quarter of 2016, the estimated earnings decline for S&P 500 companies is now a whopping negative 9.1%! (Source: “Earnings Insight,” FactSet, April 8, 2016.) This marks the first time the S&P 500 has seen four consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in earnings since 2008!
When companies are piling up inventories because of weak sales, when new orders for goods at manufacturers are plummeting, when consumer sentiment is falling, and when the S&P 500 companies are experiencing declining earnings for four quarters in a row, we are in a recession.
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FOR MORE GREAT MATERIAL FROM PETER SCHIFF:
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Peter Schiff: Here Comes the Great, Great, Great, Great Recession!
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