Severe Weather Outbreak 4/9/2015

NationalWeatherForce.com has issued a Tornado Advisory for Eastern/Southeast IA … Extreme Southwest/South/Southeast WI … All of IL … Eastern half of MO … Northern half of AR …

Issued:  4/9/15 at 12:10pm CT

The triple point where the warm front and cold front come together will be the focus for isolated tornado potential across Eastern IA into the WI/IL border and maybe Northern IL into extreme Southern WI.  Given this, the model here at NWF is pegging these zones to be good enough for updraft rotation and longevity this afternoon and evening.

Most of the front is purple on our grids, and that color value means that updrafts will form and run into their downdrafts quickly … and given this we will see isolated tornado potential down the entire front.  Some areas during initial development will be crucial for tornadogenesis with the focus in Southern MO’s section of the front having better dynamics for them in that section of the US.

Regardless, this advisory means that isolated tornado potential exists and that all ingredients were put together for tornadoes … just the updraft/downdraft mask for running into the downdraft was factored in and knocks the values down.

From IA/WI down through MO/IL/AR will have a line of severe thunderstorms, broken at times, capable of isolated tornadoes this afternoon and evening … if one cell can escape their downdraft … a strong tornado cannot be ruled out in that supercell …