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Dr. Jim Willie: Japan Is on the Verge of Total Economic Collapse (Audio)

Sunday, August 7, 2016 2:05
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(Before It's News)

In the following interview, End Times Newsman Rick Wiles interviews the legendary Dr. Jim Willie. As Rick explains at the opening of the interview, Dr. Willie is not your “average” guest by any means. Dr. Willie is a “different kind of guest” altogether. Rick explains that it’s one thing to know a lot of facts and statistics about what happened during a previous month or year, but it’s entirely another to mentally process information and events as they comes in, see the long range implications of those various events, and then be able to make accurate predictions from the information. That is precisely what Dr. Willie does, and what makes him so special. 

The focus of the interview, as well as the article linked below, is whether or not the Japanese economy is going to collapse. Dr. Willie begins by explaining that all Western banks are in danger of collapsing because of a decision they all made after the 2008 crash. Western banks decided after the last crash that they would “pool” (for lack of a better word) their exposure to derivatives, so that no one bank would be overly exposed. The problem with that arrangement, is that the same banks then expanded the derivatives market to such a degree, that now the whole system is in danger, “pooled” exposure or not. 

Dr, Willie explains to Rick that the main reason Alan Greenspan recently flew to Japan was in an effort to try and cutoff or stop any momentum gaining that could cause an entire Western banking contagion capable of bringing the whole system down. In other words, time for Japan to fire up the printing presses for more Zimbabwe style hyper-inflation. It seems the West never learns. 

Jim Willie Begins at the 20:00 Mark

Audio

Youtube

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Contra Corner Reports:

I remember it well. That is, the fiscal rectitude of the old Japan.

During early 1981 as the Reagan White House prepared its radical fiscal plan—-what Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker famously called a “riverboat gamble”—-we were visited by a high ranking delegation from the Japanese finance ministry (MOF). It is no overstatement to say that they were absolutely shocked by the administration’s plan to enact a sweeping 30% income tax cut and double the defense budget—while expecting that it would all balance out as a result of surging economic growth immediately and large domestic spending cuts down the road.

The MOF men feared the worst—politely noting the possibility that there would be insufficient economic growth and spending cuts to pay for the Administration’s monumental tax reductions and defense build-up. Then the US would experience an outbreak of massive fiscal deficits—an unprecedented peacetime development that could roil the entire global financial system. In that apprehension the MOF men turned out to be dead right, and not because they were especially clairvoyant.

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FREE DETAILED GUIDE TO SURVIVING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OR MARTIAL LAW HERE

Back in those benighted times, fiscal rectitude was a widely shared commitment among government financial officials including Congressional Republicans and their conservative counterparts abroad and especially in Japan. Economic policy officials did not have to be hectored about deficits and the fact that there is no such thing as a fiscal free lunch. Indeed, notwithstanding a government led 30-year drive to rebuild their economy from the complete devastation of WWII, Japan’s public debt was only 50% of GDP as of 1980.

That was then. Today Japan’s public debt is 5X greater relative to the size of its economy and tips the scales at 250% of GDP. That is off-the-charts relative to all other large developed economies and has no parallel in previous history. In the interim, of course, Japan succumbed to the Keynesian stimulus disease, betting that after its thundering financial meltdown during the early 1990s it could borrow and print its way back to the prosperity it had known during the period of its post-war economic miracle.

The chart below is thus a cautionary tale of our times. In exactly one generation of leadership, Japan’s fiscal rectitude was lost entirely. As is made clear in what follows, its fiscal equation is now beyond rescue. It is tumbling inexorably into a financial abyss that would not have been remotely imaginable by the MOF men who came to the White House in February 1981 bearing discrete admonitions of fiscal prudence.

Chart 1

The slippery slope leading to today’s Keynesian demise starts with the fact that Japan’s post-war boom wasn’t a miracle at all. From the smoldering industrial ruins left by the allies’ final assault, the Japanese economy had bounded upward for three decades owing to a massive spree of public and private investment and a sweeping mercantilist industrial development and export promotion policy. The former depended upon an extraordinarily high household savings rate and the latter was fueled by blatantly protectionist policies that kept imports out and the yen’s exchange rate far below its true economic value.

Needless to say, neither prong of Japan’s economic miracle was sustainable. By the mid-1980s the Japanese capital goods and export sectors were enormously over-built. This meant that the double-digit growth in fixed asset investment which had powered Japan’s post-war GDP growth was destined for a sharp fall. Likewise, sooner or later its exchange rate repression policies would trigger an explosion of counter-protectionism in Washington, meaning that the drastically undervalued yen feeding its towering export surpluses was heading for a sharp reversal.

That’s exactly what happened after mid-1985 when a new financial sheriff came to the US Treasury. James Baker had matriculated from the Texas School of “America first” economics and did not hesitate to lower the boom on Japan’s export driven prosperity by way of the Plaza Accords of September 1985. Under the pressure of Baker’s concerted global campaign of yen buying by the major central banks, Japan’s exchange rate soared from about 260 per dollar to 130 over the next several years.

Chart 2

Unfortunately, Japan did not use this rather brutal assault on its mercantilist economic model to rebalance and reform its economy. Instead, its government started down the slippery slope of Keynesian stimulus and financialization that has been corroding the foundations of its post-war prosperity for the last 30 years.

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FREE DETAILED GUIDE TO SURVIVING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OR MARTIAL LAW HERE

In the first round, the BOJ slashed interest rates in early 1986 in order to stimulate domestic expansion, but Japan’s problem was not that the cost of capital was too high or that it suffered from insufficient industrial capacity. In fact, it was already swamped with excess capacity in steel, autos, machinery, consumer electronics and much else.

So what Japan needed at the time was higher market clearing interest rates to thwart its now chronic over-investment in export capacity. Instead, the BOJ’s ultra easy money flowed into the financial sector, fueling a massive bubble in real estate and corporate stocks and bonds.

Chart 3

This initial round of financialization induced businesses to drastically expand their debt loads. Accordingly, non-financial debt in Japan nearly tripled from its early 1980s level. As is now well known, this surging tide of both straight and convertible debt went into what was called “zeitech” or financial engineering. What it really amounted to was rampant speculation in real estate and financial assets–especially the stock of other companies within the Keiretsu groups around which Japan’s state-led development model had been organized. As shown below, the Nikkei stock index went parabolic, rising by nearly 4X during the 50 months after the Plaza Accord.

Read the rest of the article here: 

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FREE DETAILED GUIDE TO SURVIVING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OR MARTIAL LAW HERE

 

IF YOU READ NOTHING ELSE, THE FOLLOWING POSTS ARE ESSENTIAL:

Peter Schiff: Don’t Believe the Hype! The Real Economic Fallout From Brexit (Video)

How Will the U.S. Conduct Trade With Worthless U.S. Dollars and No Gold? (Video)

Why Did Illuminated George Soros Liquidate 37% of His Stock to Buy Gold? (Video)

What Exactly Does Global Economic Collapse Coming May 2016 Mean? 

Dr. Willie and Peter Schiff Together: Total Currency Collapse and Reset Coming

Economic Implosion Will Lead to Stock Market at 5,000 by 2017 Forecaster Says

SKINNY DOLLAR

FOR MORE GREAT MATERIAL FROM JIM WILLIE:

Dr. Jim Willie: Precious Metals Market (COMEX) on the Verge of Default (Video)

Dr. Jim Willie and the Systematic Bankruptcy of Western Society (Video)

Dr. Jim Willie: New World Order Elites in Absolute Terror of Gold Standard (Audio)

Dr. Jim Willie: Deutsche Bank Valued at -$1 Trillion; Economic Chaos Ahead

Dr. Jim Willie: The Corruption Cannot Stop the Masses! 3 Part Interview (Videos)

Dr. Jim Willie: Brexit Result Could Detonate Deutsche Bank!

Dr. Jim Willie: We’ve Got “Educated People” That Are Stupid As Bedposts

Dr. Jim Willie: Death Sentence for Banks, Businesses, Families, and the US Dollar

Dr. Jim Willie: There Are No Prisoners Taken in The Global Money War

Dr. Jim Willie: 7 Signs U.S. Economy Collapses; Gold Will Soon Back US Dollar!

Dr. Jim Willie: Western Economic Markets Collapsing; Eurasian Markets Rise

Dr. Jim Willie: The Dollar is Dead! Even Mainstream Media Realizes it!

Dr. Jim Willie – Secret Meeting at the G20 to Take Down the US Dollar

Dr. Jim Willie: Financial Deals Happening Behind Closed Doors; US Not Invited

Jim Willie: U.S. Dollar is Now a Matter of National Security Due to Poor Decisions

Dollar

FOR MORE GREAT MATERIAL FROM PETER SCHIFF:

Peter Schiff: Expect An Economic Crisis Infinitely Worse Than 2008 (Videos)

Dr. Jim Willie and Peter Schiff: The Morgue Is Next Stop for U.S. Economy

Peter Schiff: Don’t Believe the Hype! The Real Economic Fallout From Brexit (Video)

Peter Schiff and Jim Rogers on the U.S. Economy: Be Afraid… Be Very Afraid (Videos)

Peter Schiff: Are People Going to Wake Up? The Economy Is Out of Road! (Video)

Peter Schiff: “Trump’s Very Massive Recession May Have Already Begun”

Peter Schiff: Americans Fear Future With ‘Dead-End Economy, Crap Jobs, and Awful Wages’

Peter Schiff: “Can Donald Trump Really Make America Great Again?”

Peter Schiff: Dollar Collapse Will Be the Single Biggest Event In Human History

Peter Schiff: Obama “Peddling Fiction” As Unemployed Tops 100 Million People

Peter Schiff: Here Comes the Great, Great, Great, Great Recession!

Peter Schiff: “Whatever Obama Was Calling Recovery… is OVER!”

Peter Schiff: Death of the US Dollar Is Imminent; Fed Out of Options

 

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  • b4

    if not 2016 it will be 2017,maybe 2018 or 2019–some say 2020– i heard 2021 or 2022–if your over 80 years the tribulation is getting closer and closer–your dead..100 years from now over 10 billion people will have died–talk about tribulation! that is a lot of human flesh rotting in the ground or being burnt(my favorite)–you better start worrying whether you will be one of the 10 billion dying and being smashed by that mean,cranky ol god because you did not do god’s bidding–or you can join the bible thumpers and live their personal hell right here on earth,dont wait for any damn rapture!

  • The key word of this time is foam. There is too much foam everywhere in the society. All is covered by foam. The politics is foam. The economy is foam. The finance is foam. The private life of people is foam. The sports are foam. The Olympic games are foam. The science is foam. The sustainable development has also turned out to be foam. Etc. etc.

    The foam consists of countless bubbles. They have only a very little portion of real thing and the rest is air. That is the description of the present world. We are waiting for a wind to blow off all the foam. Let’s pray to God for sending such a wind!

    Jesus Christ, Yeshua be blessed!

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